The University of California, UCLA
UCLADepartment of Earth and Space Sciences
ADMISSIONS NEWS & EVENTS IMAGE GALLERY SITE MAP DIRECTORY
 

HOME

ABOUT US

ACADEMICS
RESEARCH
FACULTY & STAFF
CONTACT US
SEMINAR SCHEDULE
INTERNAL
JOB OPENINGS
GIVE TO ESS
ESSSO
ALUMNI

SERVICES


 Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Professor in Residence


Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Professor in Residence 
Mailing Address:

Department of Earth and Space Sciences
University of California, Los Angeles
595 Charles Young Drive East,
Box 951567
Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567

Office:Geology 1813
Telephone:(310) 206-5667
Fax:(310) 206-3051
E-mail:vkb@ess.ucla.edu
Web Site:http://www.igpp.ucla.edu/mcdonnell/

 Courses Taught

 

ESS 204
ESS 275
ESS 298

 Current Research Interests

 Dynamics of Lithosphere; Fault Networks; Rocks-Fluids Interaction. Earthquake Prediction; Earthquake Preparedness. Critical Phenomena in Chaotic Systems; Pattern Recognition. Socio-Economic Predictions.

 Education

 

M. Sc., 1943, College of Exploration Geophysics
Ph.D. in Mathematical Geophysics, 1948, USSR Academy of Sciences
D.Sci. in Mathematical Geophysics, 1953, USSR Academy of Sciences

 Honors

 

Elected in: American Academy of Arts and Sciences; US National Ac. Sci.; Russian Ac. Sci.; Royal Astronomical Society; Austrian Ac. Sci.; Pontifical Ac. Sci.; Academia Europaea.

Doctor Honoris Causa, Institute de Physique du Globe, Paris. Fairchild Distinguished Scholar, California Institute of Technology. First Richardson medal for achievements in non-linear geoscience. The 21st Century Collaborative Activity Award for Studying Complex Systems, McDonnell Foundation.

 Selected Publications, last 10 years

 

Keilis-Borok, V. I., 1994. Symptoms of instability in a system of earthquake-prone faults. Physica D, 77 pp.193-199.

Keilis-Borok, V., and Primakov, I., 1994. Earthquake prediction and earthquake preparedness: The possibilities to reduce the damage from earthquakes. In G.Verri (ed.) Proc. of the Intern. Scientific Conf. EUROPROTECH (Udine, May 6-8, 1993), pp.17-46.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and Rotwain, I.V., 1994. Diagnostics of times of increased probability (TIPs) for strong earthquakes in Northern Appalachians. Computational Seismology and Geodynamics, Vol.1, AGU, pp.1-5.

Botwina, L., Rotwain, I., Keilis-Borok, V., and Oparina, I., 1995. Hierarchical fracturing of steel samples and premonitory transformation of earthquake flow. Doklady RAN, Vol. 345, pp.809-812.

Gabrielov, A., Keilis-Borok, V., and Jackson, D., 1996. Geometric incompatibility in a fault system. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, Vol.93, pp.3838-3842.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., 1996. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, Vol.93, pp.3748-3755.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., 1996. Non-seismological fields in earthquake prediction research. In: James Lighthill (ed.), A Critical Review of VAN. Earthquake prediction from seismic electrical signals, World Scientific Publishing Co. USA, pp.357-372.

Knopoff, L., Levshina, T., Keilis-Borok, V. I., and Mattoni, C., 1996. Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.101, No B3, pp.5779-5796.

Gorshkov, A. I., Keilis-Borok, V. I., Rotwain, I. M., Soloviev, A. A., and Vorobieva, I. A., 1997. On dynamics of seismicity simulated by the models of blocks-and-faults systems, Annali di Geofisica, vol. XL, N5, pp.1217-1232.

Rotwain, I., Keilis-Borok, V., and Botvina, L., 1997. Premonitory transformation of steel fracturing and seismicity, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 101, pp.61-71.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., 1999. What comes next in the dynamics of lithosphere and earthquake prediction?, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 111, pp. 179-185

Keilis-Borok V. I. and Shebalin P. N. (eds.), 1999. Dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 111, pp. 179-327.

Kossobokov, V. G., Romashkova, L. L, Keilis-Borok, V. I. and Healy, J H., 1999. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992–1997, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 111, pp. 187-196.

Gabrielov, A., Keilis-Borok, V., Zaliapin, I., and Newman, W., 2000. Critical transitions in colliding cascades, Physical Review E, 62, pp. 237-249.

Gabrielov, A., Zaliapin I., Newman W., and Keilis-Borok, V., 2000. Colliding cascades model for earthquake prediction, Geophysical Journal International, 143, pp. 427-437.

Keilis-Borok, V., J. H. Stock, A. Soloviev, and P. Mikhalev, 2000. Pre-recession pattern of six economic indicators in the USA, Journal of Forecasting, 19, pp. 65-80.

Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., and Baolian Cheng, 2000. Similarities of multiple fracturing on a neutron star and on the Earth. Physical Review E, Vol.61, N4, pp.3529-3533.

Shebalin P., Zaliapin I., and Keilis-Borok V., 2000. Premonitory raise of the earthquakes’ correlation range: Lesser Antilles, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 122, pp. 241-249.

Keilis-Borok, V., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Kossobokov, V., and Shebalin, P., 2001. Non-linear dynamics of the lithosphere and intermediate-term earthquake prediction, Tectonophysics, 338, pp. 247-260.

Keilis-Borok, V., 2002. Earthquake prediction: state-of-the-art and emerging possibilities, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 30, 38 p.  

Keilis-Borok, V. I., Shebalin, P. N., and Zaliapin, I. V, 2002. Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before a large earthquake: Five case histories in Southern California, Proc. Natl. Ac. Sci. 99 (26), pp. 16562-16567.

Zaliapin, I., Keilis-Borok, V., and Axen G., 2002. Premonitory spreading of seismicity over the faults’ network in southern California: Precursor Accord, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, No. B10, 2221.

Zaliapin, I., Liu, Z., Zöller, G., Keilis-Borok, V., and Turcotte, D, 2002. On increase of earthquake correlation length prior to large earthquakes in California, Computational Seismology, 33, pp. 141-161.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., 2003. Basic science for prediction and reduction of geological disasters. In Beer, T. and Ismail-Zadeh, A. (eds.), Risk Science and Sustainability, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 29-38.

Keilis-Borok, V.I., 2003. Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction: Four Paradigms. In Keilis-Borok, V.I., and Soloviev, A.A. (eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 1-36.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., Gascon, D. J., Soloviev, A. A., Intriligator, M. D., Pichardo, R., and Winberg, F. E., 2003. On predictability of homicide surges in megacities. In Beer, T. and Ismail-Zadeh, A. (eds.), Risk Science and Sustainability, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 91-110.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and Soloviev, A. A. (eds.), 2003. Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 337 p.

Zaliapin, I., Keilis-Borok, V., and Ghil, M., 2003. A Boolean delay equation model of colliding cascades. Part I: Multiple seismic regimes, Journal of Statistical Physics, 111, pp. 815-837.

Zaliapin, I., Keilis-Borok, V., and Ghil, M., 2003. A Boolean delay equation model of colliding cascades. Part II: Prediction of critical transitions, Journal of Statistical Physics, 111, pp. 839-861.

Keilis-Borok, V., Shebalin, P., Gabrielov, A., and Turcotte, D., 2004. Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 145, pp. 75-85.

Shebalin, P., Keilis-Borok, V., Zaliapin, I., Uyeda, S., Nagao, T., and Tsybin, N., 2004. Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M=8.1 A case history, Earth Planets Space, 56, pp. 715-724.

Preprints

Keilis-Borok, V.I., Soloviev, A.A., Allegre, C.B., Sobolevskii, A.N., and Intriligator, M.D., 2004. Patterns of macroeconomic indicators preceding the unemployment rise in Western Europe and the USA. Accepted to Pattern Recognition.

Zaliapin, I., Gabrielov, A., Keilis-Borok, V., 2004. Multiscale Trend Analysis. arXiv:physics/0305013 (http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0305013). Accepted to Fractals.

Zaliapin, I., Jin, A., Liu, Z., Aki, K., and Keilis-Borok, V., 2004. Temporal (un)correlations between coda Q-1 and seismicity – Multiscale Trend Analysis. Submitted to Pure and Applied Geophysics.


 
595 Charles Young Drive East • 3806 Geology Building • Box 951567 • Los Angeles • CA 90095-1567  
© 2000-06 Department of Earth and Space Sciences