UCLA - Earth and Space Sciences - Didier Sornette, Publications: Earthquakes and Ruptures

Didier Sornette, Professor of Geophysics

Mailing Address:	Department of Earth and Space Sciences University of California, Los Angeles 595 Charles Young Drive East, Box 951567 Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567
Office:	Geology 1693A
Telephone:	(310) 825-2863
Fax:	(310) 206-3051
E-mail:	sornette@moho.ess.ucla.edu
Related Site:	UCLA Seismology Lab




Teaching	- Earthquakes (ESS 8)

Quick Links:	- Current Research Interests - Education - Researchers, Post-docs & Students

Publications:	- Complex Systems - Discrete Scale Invariance & Complex Exponents - Earthquakes & Ruptures - Finance

Books:	- Mechanisms of Scale Invariance and Beyond - Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences (Textbook) - Why Stock Markets Crash? -- US edition -- Japanese translation - Extreme Financial Risks (Textbook) (From Dependence to Risk Management)

Predictions:	- The future of the USA stock market - Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US? (released 3rd June 2005) - The future of the UK and US real estate market (released March 2003) - A complex system view of why stock markets crash - Scientific Prediction of Catastrophes: A New Approach - The end of the growth era (PDF File) or click here for the technical article

Interviews:	- UCLA Press release (Dec. 1, 2004): Physicist Applies Physics to Best-Selling Books - Interview with Physics World, July Issue (2003), pp. 8-9. - Transcription of the interview with FS Newshour, California - Feb. 2003 (Transcription of the Interview) - UCLA Press release (Dec. 14, 2002): Stock Market Crashes Are Predictable

Essays:	- Celebrating the Physics of Geophysics, EOS 86 (46), 461,467 (2005) - On Universality - Endogenous versus Exogenous Origins of Crises - Sandpile models (PDF) entry in the in Encyclopedia of Nonlinear Science, Alwyn Scott, editor (Routledge, An Imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, New York, London, 2004). http://www.routledge-ny.com/ref/nonlinearsci/

Publications: Earthquakes and Ruptures

J. Andersen and D. Sornette, Predicting Failure using Conditioning on Damage History: Demonstration on Percolation and Hierarchical Fiber Bundles, Phys. Rev. E 72, 056124 (2005)
(http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0508424)

A. Saichev and D. Sornette, Renormalization of the ETAS branching model of triggered seismicity from total to observable seismicity, Phys. Rev. E
(http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0507024)

A. Saichev and D. Sornette, Vere-Jones' Self-Similar Branching Model, Phys. Rev. E 72, 056122 (2005)
(http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0505644)

A. Saichev and D. Sornette, Distribution of the Largest Aftershocks in Branching Models of Triggered Seismicity: Theory of the Universal Bath's law, Phys. Rev. E 71, 056127 (2005)
(http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0501102)

D. Sornette and M.J. Werner, Apparent Clustering and Apparent Background Earthquakes Biased by Undetected Seismicity, J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 110, No. B9, B09303, 10.1029/2005JB003621 (22 September 2005)
(http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0501049)

A. Saichev and D. Sornette, Power law distribution of seismic rates, Phys. Rev. Letts
(http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0412050)

A. Saichev and D. Sornette, Power law distribution of seismic rates: theory and data, Eur. J. Phys. B 49, 377-401 (2006)
(http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0412043)

D. Sornette and M.J. Werner, Constraints on the Size of the Smallest Triggering Earthquake from the ETAS Model, Baath's Law, and Observed Aftershock Sequences, J. Geophys. Res. 110, No. B8, B08304, doi:10.1029/2004JB003535 (2005)
(http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JB003535) (http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0411114)

D. Sornette, Statistical Physics of Rupture in Heterogeneous Media, Handbook of Materials Modeling, S. Yip, ed. (Springer Science and Business Media, 2005), pp. 1313-1331
(http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0409524)

D. Sornette and G. Ouillon, Multifractal Scaling of Thermally-Activated Rupture Processes, Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 038501 (2005)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0407053)

G. Ouillon and D. Sornette, Magnitude-Dependent Omori Law: Theory and Empirical Study, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B04306, doi:10.1029/2004JB003311 (2005).
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0407208)

H. Nechad, A. Helmstetter, R. El Guerjouma and D. Sornette, Creep Ruptures in Heterogeneous Materials, Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 045501 (2005)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0404347)

A. Saichev and D. Sornette, Anomalous Power Law Distribution of Total Lifetimes of Aftershocks Sequences, Phys. Rev. E 70, 046123 (2004)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0404019)

H. Nechad, A. Helmstetter, R. El Guerjouma and D. Sornette, Andrade and Critical Time-to-Failure Laws in Fiber-Matrix Composites: Experiments and Model, Journal of Mechanics and Physics of Solids (JMPS) 53, 1099-1127 (2005)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0404035)

D. Sornette, A. Helmstetter, J.V. Andersen, S. Gluzman, J.-R. Grasso and V.F. Pisarenko, Towards Landslide Predictions: Two Case Studies. Physica A 338, 605-632 (2004) (http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0305067)

A. Helmstetter, S. Hergarten and D. Sornette, Properties of Foreshocks and Aftershocks of the Non-Conservative Self-Organized Critical Olami-Feder-Christensen Model, Phys. Rev. E 70, 046120 (2004)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0312689)

V.Pisarenko, D.Sornette, and M. Rodkin, Deviations of the distributions of seismic energies from the Gutenberg-Richter law, Computational Seismology 35, 138-159 (2004) (http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0312020)

A. Saichev and D. Sornette, Andrade, Omori and Time-to-failure Laws from Thermal Noise in Material Rupture, Phys. Rev. E 71, 016608 (2005)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0311493)

A. Helmstetter and D. Sornette, Comment on "Power-Law Time Distribution of Large Earthquakes," Phys. Rev. Lett. Lett. 92, 129801 (2004). (reply is Phys. Rev. Lett. Lett. 92, 129802 (2004))
(http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0307134)

A. Helmstetter and D. Sornette, Bath's law Derived from the Gutenberg-Richter law and from Aftershock Properties, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2069, 10.1029/2003GL018186 (2003)(http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0307083)

A. Saichev, A. Helmstetter and D. Sornette, Anomalous Scaling of Offspring and Generation Numbers in Branching Processes, Pure and Applied Geophysics 162, 1113-1134 (2005).
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0305007)

G. Ouillon and D. Sornette, Long-range Static Directional Stress Transfer in a Cracked, Nonlinear Elastic Crust, Future Generation Computer Systems 22, 500-520
(doi:10.1016/j.future.2005.04.007)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0304054)

A. Helmstetter, G. Ouillon and D. Sornette, Are Aftershocks of Large Californian Earthquakes Diffusing? J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2483, 10.1029/2003JB002503 (2003)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0303075)

A. Helmstetter and D. Sornette, Importance of direct and indirect triggered seismicity in the ETAS model of seismicity,
Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 (11) doi:10.1029/2003GL017670 June (2003)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0303070)

D. Sornette and V.F. Pisarenko, Fractal Plate Tectonics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(3), 1105, doi:10.1029/2002GL015043 (2003).
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0202320)

The global set of present plate boundaries on the Earth used in "Fractal Plate Tectonics" has been obtained by P. Bird at the department of Earth and Space Sciences at UCLA and is published in Bird, P. (2003) An updated digital model of plate boundaries, Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems, 4(3), 1027, doi:10.1029/2001GC000252.
http://element.ess.ucla.edu/publications/2003_PB2002/2003_PB2002.htm

A. Helmstetter and D. Sornette, Foreshocks explained by cascades of triggered seismicity, J. Geophys. Res. (Solid Earth) 108 (B10),2457 10.1029/2003JB002409 01 (October 2003) (http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0210130)

D. Sornette and C. Le Floc'h, Predictability of catastrophic events; a new approach for Structural Health Monitoring, Structural Health Monitoring Journal
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0210418)

A. Helmstetter and D. Sornette, Predictability in the ETAS Model of Interacting Triggered Seismicity, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2482, 10.1029/2003JB002485 (2003)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0208597)

G. Ouillon and D. Sornette, Search for Direct Stress Correlation Signatures of the Critical Earthquake Model, Geophys. J. Int., 157, 1233-1246 (2004)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0208498)

A. Helmstetter, D. Sornette, J.-R. Grasso, J. V. Andersen, S. Gluzman and V. Pisarenko, Slider-Block Friction Model for Landslides: Application to Vaiont and La Clapiere Landslides, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B02409, doi:10.1029/2002JB002160 (2004).
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0208413)

A. Helmstetter, D. Sornette and J.-R. Grasso, Mainshocks are Aftershocks of Conditional Foreshocks: How do foreshock statistical properties emerge from aftershock laws, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (B1), 2046, doi:10.1029/2002JB001991, 2003.
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0205499)

A. Helmstetter and D. Sornette, Diffusion of epicenters of earthquake aftershocks, Omori's law, and generalized continuous-time random walk models - art. no. 061104, Physical Review E. 6606 (6 Part 1):1104, 2002 Dec.
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0203505)

Wei-Xing Zhou and Didier Sornette, Generalized q-Analysis of Log-Periodicity: Applications to Critical Ruptures, Phys. Rev. E - art. no. 046111, 6604 N4 PT2:U129-U136 (2002)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0201458)

V.F. Pisarenko and D. Sornette, Statistical detection and characterization of a deviation from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution above magnitude 8, Pure and Applied Geophysics 161 (4), 839-864 (2004)(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0201552)

Didier Sornette and Agnes Helmstetter, Occurrence of Finite-Time-Singularity in Epidemic Models of Rupture, Earthquakes and Starquakes, Physical Review Letters 89 (15) 158501 (20 Sept 2002) (http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0112043)

A. Helmstetter and D. Sornette, Sub-critical and supercritical regimes in epidemic models of earthquake aftershocks, J. Geophys. Res. 107, NO. B10, 2237, doi:10.1029/2001JB001580, 18 October (2002)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0109318)

D. Sornette and K. Ide, Theory of self-similar oscillatory finite-time singularities in Finance, Population and Rupture, Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 14 (3), 267-275 (2002) (http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0106054)

K. Ide and D. Sornette, Oscillatory Finite-Time Singularities in Finance, Population and Rupture, Physica A 307 (1-2), 63-106 (2002)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0106047)

S.G. Sammis and D. Sornette, Positive Feedback, Memory and the Predictability of Earthquakes, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences V99 SUPP1:2501-2508 (2002 FEB 19)
http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0107143

D. Sornette, Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes and human birth,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA,
V99 SUPP1:2522-2529 (2002 FEB 19)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0107173)

C. Maveyraud, J.P. Vila, D. Sornette, C.Le Floc'h, J.M. Dupillier, R. Salome, Numerical modelling of the behaviour of high-pressure vessels under a hypervelocity impact, Mec.Ind. 2, 57-62 (2001).

H.J.Viljoen, L.L.Lauderback and D. Sornette, Solitary waves and supersonic reaction front in metastable solids, art. no. 026609. Physical Review E V6502 N2 PT2:U807-U819 (2002 FEB).
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0012496)

J.-C. Anifrani, C. Le Floc'h and D. Sornette, Prediction de la rupture de reservoirs composites de haute pression a l'aide de l'emission acoustique, Controle Industriel 220, 43-45 (1999)

V.F. Pisarenko and D. Sornette, Characterization of the frequency of extreme events by the Generalized Pareto Distribution, Pure and Applied Geophysics 160 (12), 2343-2364 (2003) (http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0011168)

S. Gluzman, J.V. Andersen and D. Sornette, Functional Renormalization Prediction of Rupture, Computational Seismology 32, 122-137 (2001) Eds. A.Levshin,G.Molchan, B.Naimark, Moscow, GEOS
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0011164)

S. Gluzman and D. Sornette
Self-Consistent Theory of Rupture by progressive diffuse damage,
Physical Review E V6306 N6 PT2:6129,U241-U250 (2001)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0010207)

C. Maveyraud, J.P. Vila, D. Sornette, C.Le Floc'h, J.M. Dupillier, R. Salome, Numerical modelling of the behaviour of high-pressure vessels under a hypervelocity impact, in proceedings of the conference ``Propulsion des vehicules spatiaux'', Cannes, 10-13 october 2000, organized by ESA and CNES
(http://www.cnes.fr/colloque)

Y. Huang, H. Saleur and D. Sornette, Reexamination of log-periodicity observed in the seismic precursors of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, J. Geophysical Research 105, B12, 28111-28123 (2000)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0007095)

A. Johansen and D. Sornette, Critical ruptures, Eur. Phys. J. B 18, 163-181 (2000)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0003478)

A. Johansen, H. Saleur and D. Sornette, New Evidence of Earthquake Precursory Phenomena in the 17 Jan. 1995 Kobe Earthquake, Japan, Eur. Phys. J. B 15, 551-555 (2000)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9911444)

G. Ouillon and D. Sornette, The critical earthquake concept applied to mine rockbursts with time-to-failure analysis, Geophysical Journal International 143, 454-468 (2000)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0001425)

M.W. Lee, D. Sornette and L. Knopoff, Persistence and Quiescence of Seismicity on Fault Systems, Physical Review Letters 83 N20:4219-4222 (1999)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9904335)

D. Sornette, Towards a truly multidisciplinary approach to earthquake prediction, in Nature debate April 1999, ``Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?''( http://helix.nature.com/debates/earthquake/equake_25.html)

A. Johansen and D. Sornette, Acoustic radiation controls friction: evidence from a spring-block experiment, Phys. Rev. Letts. 82 (25), 5152-5155 (1999)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9901350)
in Physics News Update, The American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Physics News Number 433, June 15, 1999 by Phillip F. Schewe and Ben Stein, ()
http://www.aip.org/enews/physnews/1999/split/pnu433-2.htm

D. Sornette and A. Sornette, Acoustic fluidization for earthquakes?, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 90 (3), 781-785 (2000)
(http://arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0001302)

C. Maveyraud, W. Benz, A. Sornette and D. Sornette, Solid friction at high sliding velocities\,: an explicit 3D dynamical SPH approach, J. Geophys. Res. 104 NB12:28769-28788. (1999)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9809213)

A. Sornette and D. Sornette, Renormalization of earthquake aftershocks, Geophys. Res. Lett. 6, N13, 1981-1984 (1999)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9905314)

D. Sornette and A. Sornette, General theory of the modified Gutenberg-Richter law for large seismic moments, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 89, N4:1121-1130 (1999)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9905313)

D. Sornette, Mechanochemistry: an hypothesis for shallow earthquakes, to appear in EARTHQUAKE THERMODYNAMICS AND PHASE TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE EARTH'S INTERIOR - Roman Teisseyre and Eugeniusz Majewski (eds), Cambridge University Press (1998)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9807400)

D. Sornette, Earthquakes: from chemical alteration to mechanical rupture, Physics Reports, vol. 313:5, 238-292 (1999)
ABSTRACTS and PDFs at: (http://www.elsevier.nl/locate/physrep)
(preprint at http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9807305)

Didier Sornette, Kwan-tai Leung and Jorgen Vitting Andersen, Conditions for abrupt failure in the democratic fiber bundle model, Phys. Rev. Lett. 80, 3158 (1998)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9712313)

D.D. Bowman, G. Ouillon, C.G. Sammis, A. Sornette and D. Sornette, An Observational test of the critical earthquake concept, J.Geophys. Res. 103, (NB10), 24359-24372 (1998)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9803204)

J.R. Grasso and D. Sornette, Testing self-organized criticality by induced seismicity, J. Geophys.Res. 103 (B12), 29965-29987 (1998)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9810190)

D. Sornette and J. V. Andersen, Scaling with respect to disorder in time-to-failure, Eur. Phys. Journal B 1, 353-357 (1998)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9707114)

D. Sornette, Emergence in Earthquakes, InterJournal Complex Systems, 130, Manuscript Number: [130], Submission Date: 971015, Subject(s): CX.02, CX.28,
(http://www.ji.si.ehu.es/Activities/Sc/sorneeie.htm)
Proceedings of the New England Complex Systems, Institute Conference, Nashua, Newhampshire, Y. Bar-Yam (ed.), (1997)

D. Sornette and L. Knopoff, The paradox of the expected time until the next earthquake, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 87, 789-798 (1997)

L. Lamaignere, F. Carmona and D. Sornette, Static and dynamic electric breakdown in conducting filled-polymers, Physica A 241, 328-333 (1997)

J.V. Andersen, D. Sornette and K.-T. Leung, Tri-critical behavior in rupture induced by disorder, Phys. Rev. Lett. 78, 2140-2143 (1997)
(http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9609022)

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